It seems like any award that doesn’t recognize Goodfellas is flawed at best. In the 1991 Oscars the Scorsese gangster movie was nominated for 5 awards: best picture, best supporting actor, editing, adapted screenplay and director. Goodfellas is arguably one of the most enduring movies to come out of the 90s, behind Schindler’s List and L.A. Confidential (in my opinion). The eventual winner of most of the awards Goodfellas was nominated for was Dances with Wolves. No disrespect to Kevin Costner, but Dances with Wolves doesn’t stand up over the years nearly as well as Goodfellas (even though it falls apart in the third act). It just goes to show you that a movie can win the hearts and minds of Academy voters regardless of the quality or its ability to stand the test of time. The Searchers, which is widely considered one of the best films ever made, was never nominated for an Oscar. Although it’s the industry standard for quality, winning an Academy Award doesn’t always mean much in the broad scope of things. The 1956 winner for best picture was Around the World in 80 Days. The Searchers wasn’t even nominated.
Around the World in 80 Days. Remember that one?
I didn’t think so.
This year may or may not be the same. Instead of five best picture nominees, there are ten. The acting awards all seem more like coronations at this point. The nominees seem to be, in some cases, a reflection of sentiment rather than ability.
Who cares, though, right? The system may be slightly broken, but it’s all we got. And, heck, they’re just awards.
Predictions
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Short Film (Animated): Kavi
Short Film (Live Action): A Matter of Loaf and Death
Costume Design: Bright Star (but honestly, why not Where the Wild Things Are?)
Visual Effects: Avatar (no-brainer, but again, why not nominate Where the Wild Things Are?)
Music (Original Score): Avatar (Another no brainer)
Music(Original Song): The Weary Kind (Although I really love those Disney songs)
Documentary Short: Music by Prudence
Documentary Feature: The Cove
Makeup: Star Trek (although I’d like for Il Divo to win)
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon (although A Prophet certainly stands a fighting chance)
Art Direction: Avatar
Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Cinematography: The White Ribbon
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: District 9 or Precious
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win and Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: James Cameron (All due respect to Bigelow, but Cameron created A NEW WORLD. Think about that…regardless of how juvenile his dialogue is or how facile the plot is, he created a whole new mythology in a way that is both believable and compelling. No matter how big an asshole he is.)
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win and Should Win: Mo’Nique (For the life of me I never thought the star of Phat Girlz would ever win an Oscar. She deserves it. Although Vera Farmiga‘s side boob makes a compelling case…)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz and Christopher Plummer (There have been ties before. There should be a tie again. Both actors were wonderful.)
Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Helen Mirren (I could have made a couple of “anybody else” jokes here, but I haven’t seen The Blind Side.)
Best Actor
Will Win and Should Win: Jeff Bridges (I think I might have picked Jeremy Renner as the “should win” but he seems like such a jerk. Whenever you seem him at an awards show he looks like he’s having the worst time of his life. Get a grip, Jeremy!)
Best Picture
The nominees if it was my decision: A Serious Man, Precious, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Inglourious Basterds, The Last Station, Avatar, Goodbye Solo, Where the Wild Things Are, Up and The Hurt Locker
Will Win: The Hurt Locker or Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
In all honesty, this is one of the years in which I’m not going to be disappointed with the winner. Should Avatar win over The Hurt Locker? Probably not, but it’s likely. I think of the films that are nominated, my favorite is A Serious Man. I think it’s better than No Country for Old Men in a lot of ways. It seems to be losing momentum because it didn’t make a whole lot of money. And some people call it anti-Semitic, which is nonsense. Oh well.
A couple of years ago, I was furious that Return of the King swept every category in which it was nominated. The Oscar results made me dislike it so much. But I watched it again recently and I can’t recall a better movie being made that year. So there we are. The Oscars used to be much bigger to me, back when I didn’t watch 500+ movies a year. Now I realize that it doesn’t matter what the Academy thinks: the only validation my taste needs is from myself. I don’t care if The Last Station isn’t nominated for Best Picture. I still think it’s the best movie I’ve seen all year. It just doesn’t matter. I like what I like. You like what you like. Let’s just sit back and relax. And enjoy the show.