The Golden Globes have never held as high an import as the Oscars, partly because it is a less humorless ceremony, but also because the college of voters is so small. It seems almost unfair that the Globes are more widely valued than the Critics Choice awards or the various guild awards because it’s voted on by a group of journalists who works primarily for international publications. The Golden Globes should mean more in Europe than they do here (and they may for all I know). I care more about what Manohla Dargis, A.O. Scott and Roger Ebert think than anybody who writes film reviews for Der Spiegel or the London Times. Though, just because it is a less relevant award show to us doesn’t mean that it has no value (as superficial as any award show’s value may be).
Three things make the Globes more entertaining than The Oscars: diversity of categories, the inclusion of television and…booze. The Globes are like Oscar’s boozy, uninhibited step-brother who is visiting after a three-week bender in Ibiza. The Globes should be called Oscars while the Academy Awards would be henceforth known as The Felixes. Nobody watches the Globes because they care what 95 writers think about cinema and television; they watch because it’s fun.
That being said, this is who I think should win the Globes.
Best Supporting Actor, TV: I think Michael Emerson from Lost will win this one, but I think John Lithgow put together a really transcendent performance together in the vastly-improved fourth season of Dexter. Emerson was good too, as were the other 3 actors, but Lithgow took creepy serial killer to another level.
Best Supporting Actress, TV: This is a really difficult category because all of the performances are good. I guess I would disqualify Jane Lynch who does a tons with what she has, but her character on Glee is so one-note…except for the episode where she was going on a date with a newscaster. There are glimmers, faint as they may be, of a three-dimensional character. Lynch does fine work in Glee, but she’s kind of sabotaged by the writing. Jane Adams is probably a long shot, too, although she was kind of great as the needy, neurotic poet-turned-pimp on Hung. I didn’t see this season of Damages, but if it’s anything like season one then Rose Byrne deserves consideration, although it’s hard to call her a supporting character since her character is the protagonist. Janet McTeer is one of my favorite actresses and is an absolute fox, but her role as Clemmie Churchill was probably too small the have much of a chance against Lynch. I guess my favorite performance of the year would be Chloe Sevigny as Nicole Grant in the fantastic and underrated Big Love. Her character was put through the wringer and she had such a diverse character it’d be a shame for her to lose this award.
Best Actor/Actress/Mini-series, Mini-series: I didn’t really see any of these except for Wallander, so I’m just going to guess that Kevin Bacon, Jessica Lange and Grey Gardens will win.
Best Actor, Comedy Series: I’m least enthused with this category. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the award to Thomas Jane or Matthew Morrison because they’re the new guys on the block. They all are worthy, but it wasn’t a great year for male acting in comedy series. I bet they give it to Alec Baldwin.
Best Actress, Comedy Series: This category is weighted so heavily in favor of one actress that if she doesn’t win, I might eat my hat. And you all think I’m talking about Tina Fey. You’re wrong. Team Toni Collette all the way.
Best Actor, Drama Series: It’d be hard not to give this award to Jon Hamm, especially after season three.
Best Actress, Drama Series: I haven’t seen the second season of Damages yet and I don’t watch The Good Wife or The Closer (but I will if someone gives me five good reasons why I should), so to me it’s between January Jones and Anna Paquin. That being the case, I have to give it to Paquin. But mostly for the nudity.
Best Series, Musical or Comedy: I know that the fandom of Glee is legion, but it doesn’t really hold a candle to any of the other shows, with the exception of Entourage. Glee is a fine show and I think it has a decent chance of winning, but it’s just not as good as 30 Rock on a humor level or Modern Family on an emotional level. Since Modern Family is only mildly less funny than 30 Rock, I’m standing behind Modern Family.
Best Series, Drama: I have so much affection for Mad Men that it’s really hard for me to pick against it. It’s just such a good show. But something weird happened in the fourth season of Big Love. The writers found a way to focus on a multitude of characters and tell their stories beautifully and completely: Amanda Seyfried’s storyline in particular. She kind of gets short-shrift when people praise Big Love because she isn’t one of the three wives. The final five episodes of season three are as good as television gets, Come Ye, Saints, Outer Darkness and Sacrament in particular. It’s just about time Big Love gets some big love (see what I did there?) from the Globes.
Best Foreign Language Film: I haven’t seen any of these films yet, so let’s just go with The White Ribbon since it’s getting so much buzz.
Best Animated Feature: I love Pixar for their ability to make consistently great films and Up is no exception, but Fantastic Mr. Fox was better. Sorry…it just was. Up will win, though, and the truth is that it deserves it based on the first 5 minutes of the film.
Best Song and Best Score: These go to…who cares? Crazy Heart for song and Avatar for score. The score to Avatar was pretty fantastic. I think you can judge a great score by whether you can imagine a high school doing a marching band show with it. So…I can absolutely see a band doing an Avatar show in the next couple of years. Great score.
Best Screenplay: This is kind of where the Globes get screwy. I give this one to District 9 for being such a great idea. I think Up in the Air might take it, or maybe Inglourious Basterds, but I think District 9 deserves it.
Best Director: I guess the consensus is that The Hurt Locker is the best film of the year, so I find it hard to give it to anybody but Katheryn Bigelow. Other than an unneeded character arch, it’s a pretty flawless film. Does James Cameron or Quentin Tarantino deserve it for making the movies they made? Sure, of course. Katheryn Bigelow just made a better film.
Best Supporting Actor: Chris Waltz has had this one in the bag since June, right?
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’nique has had this one in the bag since November, right?
Best Actor, Comedy: I haven’t seen any of these except for (500) Days of Summer and Sherlock Holmes, but I don’t think either Joseph Gordon-Levitt or Robert Downey, Jr. will win this one. If I had to bet the barn on this award…well…I probably wouldn’t. Nobody particularly sticks out to me. Michael Stuhlbarg I guess?
Best Actor, Drama: Morgan Freeman’s performance as Mandela was good, but not mind-blowing. I haven’t seen Crazy Heart, but I’m betting on Jeff Bridges winning. Tobey Maguire would have been my choice between him, Freeman and George Clooney. I hear great things about Colin Firth’s performance in A Single Man, but I think Bridges has this one in the bag.
Best Actress, Comedy: This award is all Meryl Streep. But which one? I think she was good in Julia and Julia, but it was closer to imitation than anything: a fantastic imitation, but imitation no less. I guess I’d give it to her for It’s Complicated. She’s good in that. I guess. Comedy acting nominees aren’t that impressive this year.
Best Actress, Drama: I think Gabourey Sidibe deserves this the most. Her portrayal of Precious was daring, nuanced and sublime. I hope she has a big career in film. She’s a fine actress. Too bad she’s going to lose this award to Sandra Bullock, who, granted, gave a decent performance in The Blind Side. So what, though? Doesn’t Sidibe’s performance carry any extra currency for being so brave and meaningful? To me it does.
Best Picture, Comedy: Ugh…I’m surprised they didn’t stick up in the Air in here. It seemed more like a comedy at times. If I had to pick one of these five, I’d pick (500) Days of Summer. It wasn’t necessarily funnier than The Hangover, but it was a better movie. I think It’s Complicated probably picks up the win. I’m not sure why voters love it so much. It’s such a flawed film. Not flawed enough to lose this award, I guess.
Best Picture, Drama: My favorite of these five is Inglourious Basterds, but I loved Avatar and The Hurt Locker, too. I think it’s going to be a tight race between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. I don’t have any problem with that, except that Up in the Air didn’t seem as good as everybody made it out to be; it was good, but nowhere near as memorable as some of the better films this year. It’s a lot like Jerry Maguire; both movies are good and funny, but they never really seem as important as a The Hurt Locker or all four movies Jerry Maguire was up against for the Oscar (The English Patient (winner), Shine, the fantastic Secrets and Lies and Fargo).
No matter how many of these predictions I have correctly made, don’t forget to tune in tomorrow night. If not for the actual awards, than for 3 hours of a drunk, live Ricky Gervais. I hope you all enjoy the awards as much as I will.
